Influence of Ukraine’s accession to the EU free trade zone on the state of the internal food market

A. Skrypnyk, Yu. Namiasenko, M. Zahlynska
Abstract

The purpose of the article is an analysis of available quantitative information on changes in the state of the domestic and world (European) food markets under the influence of Ukraine's accession to the free trade area with the EU. The research methodology is based on the use of methods of statistical and econometric analysis of price observations in time series on Ukrainian and European food markets. The presence of the impact of accession to the FTA is determined by a dummy variable separating the time of receipt of trade preferences from the previous period of time. To calculate the lag between the price variations of the European market and the domestic food market of Ukraine, the interrelated correlation function of these dynamic processes calculated in the medium R is used. The level of domestic corn and wheat prices was largely determined by the EU prices, and if for corn prices lag for Ukraine is practically absent for monthly discreteness of observations, then for wheat there is a two-month lag of delay in prices of the domestic market of Ukraine relative to the EU market. It was shown that joining the FTA with the EU stabilized the price level both in the internal food market and in the EU market. As for the increase in the price level of the domestic market for grain, it was observed only for corn (20%). For wheat, the price level of the domestic market decreased by 7%. Joining the NWF had a positive stabilizing effect on the Ukrainian food market. The presented studies provide a methodological basis for forecasting the state of the internal food market based on existing forecasts of the price dynamics in the EU market

Keywords

impact of EU market; metiseries; econometric analysis; price variance; lags; dummy variable; market stabilization

Suggested citation
Skrypnyk, A., Namiasenko, Yu., & Zahlynska, M. (2019). Influence of Ukraine’s accession to the EU free trade zone on the state of the internal food market. Economics and Business Management, 10(1), 93-105. http://doi.org//10.31548/bioeconomy2019.01.093
References
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