Economics and Business Management

Functioning of the grain market under global challenges: Theoretical and applied aspects

V. Butenko, Tetiana Mirzoieva, Nataliia Shevchenko, V. Shevliakova, А. Lazutin
Download article
Abstract

The study aimed to analyse structural changes and influencing factors affecting the dynamics of agricultural markets to develop well-grounded forecasts for their progression. Methods employed included economic and statistical analysis, regression modelling, factor and correlation analysis, as well as forecasting using machine learning models. The article presents a comprehensive assessment of the state of the grain market in Ukraine based on data for 2024. The research focuses on the analysis of production volumes, export structure, and domestic consumption of grain crops, including wheat, maize, barley, rye, oats, and others. In 2024, Ukraine’s total grain harvest amounted to 54.2 million tonnes, of which 35.4 million tonnes – over 65% of the total – were exported. The main export crops remained maize (21.7 million tonnes) and wheat (11.9 million tonnes). In the consumption structure, the largest shares were allocated to feed purposes (11.7 million tonnes), food needs (5.1 million tonnes), and technical use, including seed (2.0 million tonnes). The export geography was also analysed, with particular attention to the concentration of shipments to China, Spain, Egypt, Turkey and Indonesia, which together accounted for over 56% of total exports. Special attention was given to infrastructure constraints (including a 3.8% reduction in storage capacity), transport logistics (66% by seaport, 29% by rail), and price dynamics for key crops. Average prices were recorded at 232 USD/tonne for wheat, 187 USD/tonne for maize, and 198 USD/tonne for barley. It was concluded that the increase in production and consumption is accompanied by structural changes, a growing role of technology, rising costs, and the need for an adaptive policy framework. Ukraine has the potential to maintain a 9%-10% share of global maize exports, provided infrastructure development continues and logistics are stabilised. The findings of this study may be applied to the development of agricultural policy, the optimisation of export logistics, and the formation of economic strategies in the grain production sector

Keywords

food security; agricultural policy; export potential; climate risks; logistical challenges

Suggested citation
Butenko, V., Mirzoieva, T., Shevchenko, N., Shevliakova, V., & Lazutin, А. (2025). Functioning of the grain market under global challenges: Theoretical and applied aspects. Economics and Business Management, 16(2), 78-97. https://doi.org/10.31548/economics/2.2025.78
References
  1. Agronews. (2024). Ukraine, in 2024, an increase in the level of profitability for all types of grain and oilseed crops is expected. Retrieved from https://agronews.ua/news/v-ukrayini-u-2024-r-ochikuyetsya-zrostannya-rivnya-rentabelnosti-dlya-vsih-vydiv-zernovyh-ta-olijnyh-kultur/.
  2. Anibaldi, R., Rundle-Thiele, S., David, P., & Roemer, C. (2021). Theoretical underpinnings in research investigating barriers for implementing environmentally sustainable farming practices: Insights from a systematic literature review. Land, 10(4), article number 386. doi: 10.3390/land10040386. 
  3. APK-Inform. (2024). Wheat market in Ukraine: Trends and forecasts for 2024. Retrieved from https://www.apk-inform.com/uk/news/1544991.
  4. APK-Inform. (n.d.). Retrieved from https://www.apk-inform.com/uk/about.
  5. Bogonos, M., Chmil, A., Martyshev, P., Nazarkina, R., Nikoliuk, O., Pyvovar, P., & Stolnikovych, G. (2024). Agricultural outlook of Ukraine 2024-2033. Kyiv: Kyiv School of Economics.
  6. Boyko, V. (2022). Ensuring the functioning of the agricultural market of Ukraine under martial law. Herald of Khmelnytskyi National University. Economic Sciences, 310(5), 197-202. doi: 10.31891/2307-5740-2022-310-5(1)-32.
  7. Brailov, N.V. (2024). Export positions of grain crops on world markets: Status and trends. Kropyvnytskyi: Central Ukrainian National Technical University.
  8. Dai, Y.-S., Dai, P.-F., & Zhou, W.-X. (2024). The impact of geopolitical risk on the international agricultural market: Empirical analysis based on the GJR-GARCH-MIDAS model. Retrieved from doi: 10.48550/arXiv.2404.01641.
  9. Das, S., Myla, A.Y., Barve, A., Kumar, A., Sahu, N.C., Muduli, K., & Luthra, S. (2023). A systematic assessment of multi‐dimensional risk factors for sustainable development in food grain supply chains: A business strategic prospective analysis. Business Strategy and the Environment, 32(8), 5536-5562. doi: 10.1002/bse.3435.
  10. Daumas, L. (2024). Financial stability, stranded assets and the low‐carbon transition – a critical review of the theoretical and applied literatures. Journal of Economic Surveys, 38(3), 601-716. doi: 10.1111/joes.12551.
  11. Debet. (n.d.). Agricultural insurance: Features and legislative basis for the agricultural sector. Retrieved from https://www.debet.com.ua/news/ahrostrakhuvannya-osoblyvosti-ta-zakonodavche-pidgruntya-dlya-sektoru-silskoho-hospodarstva.
  12. Dibrova, A., Baidala, V., Mirzoieva, Т., Stepasyuk, L., Chmil, A., & Dibrova, L. (2024). Forecasting and modelling the rye market, as a niche grain crop, under conditions of increasing mineral fertiliser costs. Scientific Horizons. 27(11), 52-67 doi: 10.48077/scihor11.2024.52.
  13. Dossa, A.A., Gough, A., Batista, L., & Mortimer, K. (2022). Diffusion of circular economy practices in the UK wheat food supply chain. International Journal of Logistics Research and Applications, 25(3), 328-347. doi: 10.1080/13675567.2020.1837759.
  14. Economic Pravda. (2024).  Ukraine increased grain exports by 13.5%. Retrieved from https://epravda.com.ua/finances/ukrajina-zbilshila-eksport-zerna-na-13-5-803713/.
  15. Elevatorist. (2024a). Agricultural exports-2023: How much and where were grains and oils sold. Retrieved from https://elevatorist.com/spetsproekt/210-agrarniy-eksport-2023-skilki-i-kudi-prodali-zerna-ta-oliyi.
  16. Elevatorist. (2024b). Grain storage capacities in Ukraine by region – infographic. Retrieved from https://elevatorist.com/blog/read/885-potujnosti-zberigannya-zerna-v-ukrayini-po-oblastyah--infografika.
  17. Eurostat. (2024). Eurostat regional yearbook – 2024 edition. Luxembourg: Publications Office of the European Union.
  18. FAOSTAT. (n.d.). Retrieved from https://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data/SCL.
  19. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. (2024). Trade and nutrition: Identifying the linkages. In The state of agricultural commodity markets 2024. Rome: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations.
  20. Garegnani, P. (2024). Two routes to effective demand: Comment on Kregel. In Capital theory, the surplus approach, and effective demand: An alternative framework for the analysis of value, distribution and output levels (pp. 435-444). Cham: Springer International Publishing. doi: 10.1007/978-3-031-23643-3_12.
  21. Gupta, R., & Shankar, R. (2024). Managing food security using blockchain-enabled traceability system. Benchmarking: An International Journal, 31(1), 53-74. doi: 10.1108/BIJ-01-2022-0029.
  22. Hersbach, H., et al. (2023). ERA5 post-processed daily-statistics on pressure levels from 1940 to present. Copernicus Climate Change Service. Climate Data Store. doi: 10.24381/cds.4991cf48.
  23. International Monetary Fund. (2024). World economic outlook. Washington: International Monetary Fund.
  24. Javadi, A., Ghahremanzadeh, M., Sassi, M., Javanbakht, O., & Hayati, B. (2023). Economic evaluation of the climate changes on food security in Iran: Application of CGE model. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 151(1), 567-585. doi: 10.1007/s00704-022-04289-w.
  25. Jones, S.B., Sheng, W., & Or, D. (2022). Dielectric measurement of agricultural grain moisture – theory and applications. Sensors, 22(6), article number 2083. doi: 10.3390/s22062083.
  26. Kanan, M., Jebreen, A., Saleh, Y., Zaid, A. A., Assaf, R., Tunsi, W., & Al-Sartawi, A. (2023). Assessing the implementation of statistical process control in food industries: an empirical study from a developing country context. Operational Research in Engineering Sciences: Theory and Applications, 6(2).
  27. Khatri, P., Kumar, P., Shakya, K.S., Kirlas, M.C., & Tiwari, K.K. (2024). Understanding the intertwined nature of rising multiple risks in modern agriculture and food system. Environment, Development and Sustainability, 26(9), 24107-24150. doi: 10.1007/s10668-023-03638-7.
  28. Kotenko, V.I. (2022). Algorithmic machine learning models for predicting fuel consumption by vehicles during grain crop delivery. Central Ukrainian Scientific Bulletin. Technical Sciences, 6(37), 173-182. doi: 10.32515/2664-262X.2022.6(37).1.173-182.
  29. Kozlovskyi S., Yousuf A., Butenko V., Kulinich T., Bohdaniuk O., Nikolenko L., & Lavrov R. (2024). The influence of the world grain market on prevalence of mankind’s undernourishment in the times of war on the Ukraine. Problems of Sustainable Development, 19(1), 31-42. doi: 10.35784/preko.5748.
  30. Laidig, F., Feike, T., Hadasch, S., Rentel, D., Klocke, B., Miedaner, T., & Piepho, H.P. (2021). Breeding progress of disease resistance and impact of disease severity under natural infections in winter wheat variety trials. Theoretical and Applied Genetics, 134, 1281-1302. doi: 10.1007/s00122-020-03728-4.
  31. Langridge, P., Braun, H., Hulke, B., Ober, E., & Prasanna, B.M. (2021). Breeding crops for climate resilience. Theoretical and Applied Genetics, 134(6), 1607-1611. doi: 10.1007/s00122-021-03854-7.
  32. Latifundist. (2024). Harvest online 2024. Retrieved from https://latifundist.com/urozhaj-online-2024.
  33. Letta, M., Montalbano, P., & Pierre, G. (2022). Weather shocks, traders’ expectations, and food prices. American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 104(3), 1100-1119. doi: 10.1111/ajae.12258.
  34. Liu, Y., Cui, J., Jiang, H., & Yan, H. (2023). Do county financial marketization reforms promote food total factor productivity growth?: A mechanistic analysis of the factors quality of land, labor, and capital. Frontiers in Sustainable Food Systems, 7, article number 1263328. doi: 10.3389/fsufs.2023.1263328.
  35. Małecki, J., Muszyński, S., & Sołowiej, B.G. (2021). Proteins in food systems –bionanomaterials, conventional and unconventional sources, functional properties, and development opportunities. Polymers, 13(15), article number 2506. doi: 10.3390/polym13152506.
  36. Mill, J.S. (2024). The currency question. In The history of banking II, 1844-1959 Vol 1 (pp. 260-279). London: Routledge.
  37. Mind. (2024). Grain transportation by rail in January-September 2024 reached an absolute record for the years of independence. Retrieved from https://mind.ua/news/20279770-perevezennya-zerna-zalizniceyu-u-sichni-veresni-2024-go-dosyagli-absolyutnogo-rekordu-za-roki-nezalezhnost.
  38. Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food of Ukraine. (n.d.). Export of grains, legumes and flour from Ukraine. Retrieved from https://minagro.gov.ua/napryamki/eksport-do-krain-ies/eksport-z-ukrayini-zernovih-zernobobovih-ta-boroshna.
  39. Mukherjee, T., Elmer, J.W., Wei, H.L., Lienert, T.J., Zhang, W., Kou, S., & DebRoy, T. (2023). Control of grain structure, phases, and defects in additive manufacturing of high-performance metallic components. Progress in Materials Science, 138, article number 101153. doi: 10.1016/j.pmatsci.2023.101153.
  40. National Bank of Ukraine. (n.d.). Retrieved from  https://bank.gov.ua/ua/statistic/macro-indicators. 
  41. Peng, X., Zhang, X., Wang, X., Li, H., Xu, J., & Zhao, Z. (2022). Multi-chain collaboration-based information management and control for the rice supply chain. Agriculture, 12(5), article number 689. doi: 10.3390/agriculture12050689.
  42. Prajapati, D., Chan, F.T., Daultani, Y., & Pratap, S. (2022). Sustainable vehicle routing of agro-food grains in the e-commerce industry. International Journal of Production Research, 60(24), 7319-7344. doi: 10.1080/00207543.2022.2034192.
  43. Pro-Consulting. (2024). Analysis of the grain market in Ukraine. Retrieved from https://pro-consulting.ua/ua/issledovanie-rynka/analiz-rynka-zernovyh-v-ukraine-2024-god.
  44. Qiu, T., & Luo, B. (2021). Do small farms prefer agricultural mechanization services? Evidence from wheat production in China. Applied Economics, 53(26), 2962-2973. doi: 10.1080/00036846.2020.1870656.
  45. Rose, A., Chen, Z., & Wei, D. (2023). The economic impacts of Russia–Ukraine War export disruptions of grain commodities. Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, 45(2), 645-665. doi: 10.1002/aepp.13351.
  46. Rozi, F., et al. (2023). Indonesian market demand patterns for food commodity sources of carbohydrates in facing the global food crisis. Heliyon, 9(6). doi: 10.1016/j.heliyon.2023.e16809.
  47. Rudik, N.M. (2021). Problems of development of agricultural cooperation: Macroeconomic aspect. Taurida Scientific Herald. Series: Economics, 5, 47-58. doi: 10.32851/2708-0366/2021.5.6.
  48. State Statistics Service of Ukraine. (n.d.). Retrieved from https://surl.lu/syomge.
  49. Tadele, E., & Hibistu, T. (2021). Empirical review on the use dynamics and economics of teff in Ethiopia. Agriculture & Food Security, 10, 1-13. doi: 10.1186/s40066-021-00329-2.
  50. Tadić, B., & Melnik, R. (2021). Self-organised critical dynamics as a key to fundamental features of complexity in physical, biological, and social networks. Dynamics, 1(2), 181-197. doi: 10.3390/dynamics1020011.
  51. Tushar, S.R., Alam, M.F.B., Zaman, S.M., Garza-Reyes, J.A., Bari, A.M., & Karmaker, C.L. (2023). Analysis of the factors influencing the stability of stored grains: Implications for agricultural sustainability and food security. Sustainable Operations and Computers, 4, 40-52. doi: 10.1016/j.susoc.2023.04.003.
  52. UkrAgroConsult. (n.d.). Ukraine: Exports of grains and oilseeds for 2022. Retrieved from https://ukragroconsult.com/ukrayina-eksport-zernovyh-ta-olijnyh-kultur-za-2022-rik/.
  53. Ukrainian State Fund. (n.d.). Financial assistance. Ukrainian State Fund. Retrieved from https://udf.gov.ua/index.php/finansova-pidtrymka/finansova-dopomoha.
  54. United Nations. Department of economic and social affairs. Population Division. (2024). World Population Prospects. Retrieved from https://population.un.org/wpp/downloads?folder=Standard%20Projections&group=Most%20used.
  55. USDA. (n.d.). Grain crushings and co-products production. united states department of agriculture. Retrieved from https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/n583xt96p.
  56. von Cramon-Taubadel, S., & Goodwin, B.K. (2021). Price transmission in agricultural markets. Annual Review of Resource Economics, 13(1), 65-84. doi: 10.1146/annurev-resource-100518-093938.
  57. World Bank Open Data. (n.d.). Retrieved from https://data.worldbank.org/country/united-states?view=chart.
  58. Yang, J., Li, Z., & Wang, T. (2021). Price discovery in Chinese agricultural futures markets: A comprehensive look. The Journal of Futures Markets, 41(4), 536-555. doi: 10.1002/fut.22179.