The aim of the work was to quantitatively assess the competitiveness of floriculture as a direction of agrarian entrepreneurship in Ukraine, to identify key risks, and to propose management and policy solutions taking into account international experience. The methodology combined theoretical frameworks (five forces model, resource-oriented and cluster approaches) with empirical analysis: monthly series for 2019-2024 from international databases of foreign trade and official statistics were used; a linear regression model of sales profitability with indexed factors (base: 2021 = 100) was constructed for energy prices, imported inputs and wages; a scenario analysis was performed. Due to the lack of publicly available system data on domestic production, market estimates were obtained using the HS 0603 proxy; for the HS subsegment 0603.10 (roses) in 2021 imports amounted to USD 20.72 million and 5.81 thousand tonnes, in 2022 – USD 24.45 million and 4.57 thousand tonnes; in 2023 exports in total – about USD 0.743 million (42.9 tonnes). The specific cost of imports (0603.10) increased from ≈3.57 to 5.35 USD/kg. Regression estimates showed that an increase in the energy price index by 10 points (≈+10%) is associated with a decrease in sales profitability by 4.1 pp, an increase in the import input index by 10 points – by 2.7 pp, and the wage index – by 1.5 pp. Seasonal peaks of demand (February-March) significantly concentrate revenue, which increases the requirements for inventory and sales planning. The practical significance lay in the quantitative assessment of the expected effects of vertical integration, procurement cooperation, energy-efficient investments, cold logistics hubs and digital sales channels; the combination of these solutions together with targeted grants and preferential lending can increase the profitability of the industry by ≈3-6 pp in the medium term
flower market; losses; export; import; profitability