Economics and Business Management

Modelling of a consumer basket in food retail trade taking into account nutritional criteria

Anastasiia Kyrychenko
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Abstract

Current global challenges in the field of nutrition, in particular the shortage of nutrient-rich foods and the growth in consumption of ultra-processed foods, pose serious risks to public health and require a review of the structure of the consumer basket. The aim of the article was to model the impact of excise taxation on the structure of food products sold in retail trade, taking into account nutritional criteria. To achieve this goal, methods of economic and mathematical modelling, price elasticity of demand analysis, a systematic approach and comparative analysis of official statistical data from Ukraine and international sources were used. The results of the study showed a significant deviation of the actual consumption structure from the recommended norms: excessive consumption of foods high in sugar, salt and trans fats is combined with insufficient consumption of fresh vegetables, fruits, dairy products and protein sources. In 2024, consumption of foods with high nutritional value in Ukraine was only 36% of the recommended level, with dairy products and fish showing the greatest deficit. Plant-based foods are consumed at one-third below the norm, and fat intake covers only half of the requirement. At the same time, the share of junk food exceeds the acceptable level by more than ten times and continues to grow. The forecast for 2025-2029 shows a gradual recovery in consumption in Ukraine after the shocks of the war, but even in the long term, the indicators will not reach the recommended levels. The economic-mathematical model showed a double effect of excise taxes on unhealthy food products: a decrease in demand for ultra-processed foods and an increase in budget revenues for healthy eating programmes. Modelling has proven that even a moderate price increase stimulates the replacement of such products with healthier alternatives. The proposed approach makes it possible to quantitatively assess the effects of regulation and determine the balance between fiscal interests and health protection. The practical significance of the study lies in the possibility of using the results to justify state policy in the field of food market regulation aimed at forming healthy eating habits among the population

Keywords

consumer food preferences; product format; excise tax; dietary quality of the diet; junk food; economic and mathematical modelling

Suggested citation
Kyrychenko, A. (2025). Modelling of a consumer basket in food retail trade taking into account nutritional criteria. Economics and Business Management, 16(4), 24-42. https://doi.org/10.31548/economics/4.2025.24
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